Imagine this...

You're a manager overseeing a team of employees who are working on a crucial project with a tight deadline.

One of your team members, Lisa, has consistently demonstrated exceptional performance throughout the project.

However, you vividly recall a minor disagreement you had with Lisa during an early team meeting.

This memory stands out, and as you evaluate her contributions to the project, the disagreement takes on more significance than it should.

You are more inclined to weigh this isolated incident heavily in your assessment, which emphasizes the ease of recalling specific instances, even if they don't accurately represent the overall performance of an individual.

In this week’s edition of Mindful Marketing, we’re diving into the Availability Heuristic - How we tend to think that things that happened recently are more likely to happen again

🧠 The Psychology of the Availability Heuristic

What exactly is a Heuristic? 🤔

When there is too much overload of information and we have to quickly make a decision, our brains use some mental shortcuts or “rules-of-thumb” known as heuristics to simplify the complex decision-making processes.

It's a mental strategy that helps us quickly arrive at a satisfactory solution or judgment without having to analyze all the available information in great detail.

Heuristics are often employed when we face situations with limited time, information, or cognitive resources.

Think of heuristics as the brain's shortcut tools for decision-making.

Instead of considering every possible option or analyzing all the relevant data, we rely on these general guidelines/shortcuts to make decisions quickly.

The strength of these shortcuts depend on the following characteristics of the information presented before us:

• Recency

• Frequency

• Negativity

• Extremity

One of the most common examples of a heuristic is the availability heuristic which in simple terms can be expressed as:

The term "availability heuristic" was coined by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, who introduced this concept in their research paper titled "Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases," which was published in 1973.

The Availability Heuristic's logic goes like this: if it is easy to recall (remember), the probability or frequency of its occurrence must be very high.

This can easily be understood by the following 2 experiments:

Lists of names 📝

For example, according to a study conducted by Tversky & Kahneman in 1973, if we ask people to read two lists of names:

• 19 famous men, 20 less famous women

• 19 famous women, 20 less famous men

When asked, people will estimate that there were more men than women in the first list and more women than men in the second list " even though the opposite is true.

There are more Cakes than Kangaroos 🍰🦘

Another study was conducted by Tversky & Kahneman in 1973, in which participants were asked whether there were more words that begin with the letter K or more words that have K as their third letter.

Despite the fact that there are actually twice as many words in which K is the third letter, 70% of the participants incorrectly believed that there are more words that begin with K.

This is because it is much easier for people to come up with words that start with K, such as (kitchen, kangaroo, and kale), compared to words that have K as the third letter, like (ask, cake, and biking).

The ease of recalling words that begin with K creates the illusion that there are more of them.

Media and the News 📰🎥

The media cleverly utilizes the availability heuristic to create a sensational impact with their news coverage.

The recency and frequency of makes it easy for people to recall specific news only, causing them to turn a blind eye to the big picture and the overall statistics.

Many individuals tend to overestimate the likelihood of dying from shark attacks compared to the risk of being hit by falling airplane parts, even though the latter is actually more common.

In reality, the probability of dying from falling airplane parts is 30 times greater than dying from a shark attack.

Shark attack stories receive extensive media attention due to their sensational and terrifying nature. Conversely, deaths resulting from falling airplane parts are rarely highlighted or discussed.

This biased portrayal leads to the activation of the availability heuristic, causing people to fear shark attacks more than the statistically more dangerous scenario of being killed by falling airplane parts.

💡How it works inside your Buyer’s mind

We can easily understand the working of the Availability Heuristic inside the Buyer’s Mind from the following buying examples:

Lottery Tickets 🎫

Imagine you watch a captivating documentary series about the extravagant lives of lottery winners.

After watching, you mistakenly develop a perception that your chances of winning are higher than they truly are.

The documentary showcased the luxurious houses and flashy sports cars of the winners, leaving a strong impression in your mind. This heightened impression makes it easier for you to recall those images and experiences.

Later that day, feeling lucky, you decide to purchase a Toto ticket with an $8 million jackpot prize.

Because of the documentary's influence, you believe you have a decent shot at winning since the featured winners were regular people like yourself before striking it rich.

However, you conveniently forget about the statistics homework assignment you completed for your class a few years back, which revealed the actual odds of winning the Toto lottery as 1 in 14,000,000. 

Unfortunately, your ticket doesn't win, and if you had remembered the true odds, the outcome might not have come as a surprise.

Biscuit Brands 🍪

Similarly, if you’re in a situation where you are considering between two different biscuit brands to buy.

Both brands are priced the same and offer identical nutritional information.

You have previously purchased both brands, but while consuming a biscuit from Brand A, you experienced a choking incident.

This vivid memory is likely to have a greater impact on your decision-making process than it should.

This phenomenon can be attributed to the Availability Heuristic, which suggests that highly memorable instances tend to exert a disproportionate influence on our choices.

🤑 How to Apply the Availability Heuristic

Alright, so how can you apply the Availability Heuristic right now to boost your sales?

1. Problem over Product 🧩

The problem is more important to sell than the product itself. You need people to believe the solution you’re giving is crucial for them to be fulfilled.

In Head & Shoulders' advertising campaigns, the brand focuses on the problem of dandruff and a flaky scalp.

These are common issues that many people may not think about constantly, but the advertisements bring these problems to the forefront of the consumer's mind. The ads often show individuals embarrassed by visible flakes on their clothing, emphasizing the social discomfort caused by dandruff.

By consistently highlighting the problem and demonstrating the impact it can have on one's appearance and confidence, Head & Shoulders ensures that consumers are more likely to remember their product as a solution.

In this way, the brand uses the availability heuristic to establish a strong association between the problem (dandruff) and their product (Head & Shoulders shampoo), increasing the likelihood that consumers will choose their product when faced with the problem.

2. Repetition 🔁

Lactobacillus acidophilus.

Lactobacillus what? 🧐

It’s the scientific name of a gut bacteria.

Growing up in Singapore during the 90s, this was one complex Latin term I could pronounce effortlessly, even as an 8-year-old: Lactobacillus acidophilus.

Strange, right? Why this term? 🤔

The answer is: Yakult ads.

Yakult, a probiotic cultured milk brand, was a phenomenon in Singapore during my childhood. We used to see Yakult ads all the time on TV. Their advertisements constantly emphasized the bacteria Lactobacillus acidophilus and the importance of maintaining gut health – a concept entirely new to me back then.

They highlighted a problem I wasn’t even aware of: the need for a balanced gut flora.

And guess what? Yakult was the solution.

So, by constantly reminding us that there are gut health issues that we need to take care of and that Yakult is the only brand that can help us with that, it made us aware of a problem that we’d never heard of and were never aware of.

Their success in Singapore and Malaysia wasn't just because of the quality of their product. It was the sheer repetition of their message that drove it home.

Repetition is an advertiser's secret weapon. It ingrains a brand's message and differentiates it in the customer's mind. Sometimes, advertisers even introduce problems customers didn't know they had and position their product as the ideal solution.

The customer may not actively think about this problem, but the advertiser brings it to their attention.

This relentless repetition ensured that “Lactobacillus acidophilus” was etched into my young mind – a memory that is still as fresh and vivid to this day.

The Power of Retargeting Ads: As stated by CMO.com, retargeting has the potential to generate a remarkable increase of 1,046% in brand searches. Additionally, visitors who have been retargeted are 70% more likely to convert compared to those who haven't. One of the key reasons behind the effectiveness of retargeting lies in its application of the availability heuristic in marketing.

Through repeatedly displaying the same ad to potential buyers, they are more likely to remember your message as opposed to that of your competitors.

Consequently, they develop a perception that your product holds greater significance compared to similar products from competitors.

3. Capitalize on Current Trends for Unforgettable Marketing 🔥

During Super Bowl XLVII in 2013, a power outage occurred at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, causing a delay in the game.

In response to this unexpected incident, Oreo, the popular cookie brand, seized the opportunity to create a humorous and memorable marketing campaign that tapped into the availability heuristic.

Oreo quickly released a tweet that read, "Power out? No problem. You can still dunk in the dark."

Accompanying the text was an image of an Oreo cookie in a dimly lit room, cleverly referencing both the power outage and the act of dunking Oreo cookies in milk.

By swiftly capitalizing on a current affair that was capturing the public's attention, Oreo not only demonstrated its agility in real-time marketing but also used humor to make its message memorable.

The tweet quickly went viral and generated widespread attention, showcasing how Oreo leveraged the availability heuristic. The unexpected and witty reference to the power outage linked the brand with a memorable event, making the advertisement more accessible and memorable to consumers.

This creative approach allowed Oreo to tap into the availability heuristic and create a lasting impression in the minds of potential buyers.

In a Nutshell 🥜

The Availability Heuristic prompts customers to rely on easily recalled information when making decisions.

This cognitive shortcut influences choices based on the immediate accessibility of relevant examples.

Businesses can capitalize on this by strategically presenting memorable instances that highlight their product's benefits.

Marketers can employ the Availability Heuristic by leveraging Recent and Frequent exposures to their brand.

Using this technique, purchasing decisions are guided by the vividness and familiarity of specific situations.

By leveraging customers' inclination to recall prominent instances, brands can boost engagement and drive sales.

So, be more Mindful of the Availability Heuristic and use it to elevate your conversion rates and increase your sales. 🚀

See you next Thursday,

Razy Shah

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